Method and sources

What these pages are

Five analytic scenarios in which a military encounter between China and the United States ends in a Chinese victory. Each is built from published wargames, government reports and peer-reviewed or think-tank research, and each cites its sources inline as [n] with a numbered reference list.

They are not predictions. The best-known public wargame, CSIS's The First Battle of the Next War (2023), found that in most of its 24 iterations a Chinese invasion of Taiwan failed when the United States, Japan and Taiwan fought together, at very heavy cost to all sides. The scenarios here explore the conditions under which that result could reverse: a conflict short of invasion, an ally that stays out, a war that runs long, or a crisis decided before full-scale fighting begins. Each scenario says which assumptions it depends on and what the research says about how likely they are.

How each scenario is laid out

• Summary: the trigger, who acts first, how the conflict unfolds, how long it lasts, what it costs, and how China wins.
• At a glance: the key facts in one table.
• Background and assumptions: what must be true for this path.
• Timeline: dated from D-day (D-180 is 180 days before the first shot; D+3 is three days after), with each side's immediate reaction.
• World politics and allies, How China wins, Losses, and What would change the outcome.
• References.

Limits

Casualty and loss figures beyond those modelled in the cited studies are estimates and are labelled as such. The pages use only open sources and describe military capabilities at the level of public reporting.