How China could defeat the United States

Five scenarios in which a US–China military encounter ends in a Chinese victory: what triggers it, who moves first, how allies and the world react, how the fighting unfolds, what it costs, and why Washington accepts the outcome.

These are analytic scenarios built from published wargames and research, not forecasts. Each one states the assumptions it needs and what the research says about how likely it is. Most published wargames find that China fails to take Taiwan if the United States and Japan fight; these pages explore the paths where it does not.

Scenario 1

The Quiet Strangulation: A Coast-Guard Quarantine of Taiwan

This scenario describes how China could get a strategic victory over the United States without an invasion and without a general war. Beijing announces "enhanced customs inspection rules" for all shipping bound for Taiwan. The China Coast Guard (CCG) enforces them, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) stays in support at…

Scenario 2

Fait Accompli: A Short-Warning Invasion of Taiwan

This scenario looks at how China could take Taiwan by fait accompli. The PLA turns a scheduled autumn exercise around Taiwan into a real invasion. Before the first wave lands it fires conventional missiles at US air bases on Okinawa and at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. The trigger is political and gradual: a run of…

Scenario 3

The Ayungin Withdrawal: a Second Thomas Shoal clash that the United States chose not to widen

This scenario starts in the place where US and Chinese forces have come closest to direct contact in recent years: Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin to Manila, Ren'ai Jiao to Beijing) in the Spratly Islands. Since 1999 a small Philippine Marine detachment has lived aboard the grounded, rusting BRP Sierra Madre. Its supply…

Scenario 4

The Long War: Attrition, Empty Bins and a Negotiated Settlement

This scenario starts where most published wargames stop. China's invasion of Taiwan does not succeed quickly, and the US–Japan–Taiwan coalition does not defeat it quickly either. The 2023 CSIS wargame (24 iterations) found that the invasion usually failed, but only at high cost to everyone: the US lost two aircraft…

Scenario 5

The Systems War: Coercion Without Invasion

This scenario looks at how China could defeat the United States over Taiwan without a full-scale war. It would do so by attacking the systems that let US forces see, communicate and resupply, and the systems that keep the US home front running. It is not a prediction. It shows a path that the open literature treats as…